dry natural gas production in 2023 despite a decline in natural gas prices. Associated natural gas production growth in the Permian Basin, driven by higher oil prices, has supported U.S. crude oil production will average 12.8 million b/d in 2023 and 13.1 million b/d in 2024, both annual records. As a result of higher expected well-level productivity and higher crude oil prices, we expect U.S. Non-OPEC production growth in the forecast is led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway. In 2024, global production increases by 1.7 million b/d, with 1.2 million b/d coming from non-OPEC countries. Non-OPEC production increases by 2.1 million b/d in 2023, which is partly offset by a drop in OPEC liquid fuels production. We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023. Rising global oil production in 2024 in our forecast keeps pace with oil demand and puts moderate downward pressure on crude oil prices beginning in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24). We expect these factors will continue to reduce global oil inventories and put upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, with the Brent price averaging $86/b in the second half of 2023 (2H23), up about $7/b from our July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast for the same period. Crude oil prices have increased since June, primarily because of extended voluntary cuts to Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and increasing global demand. The Brent crude oil spot price averages $85 per barrel (b) in August in our forecast.
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